"Brazil Drops Out," from Walter Russell Mead

At The American Interest Online, June 21, 2010.

“We got our fingers burned,” Amorim told the FT.  The Daily News, an English-language Turkish newspaper published by the Hurriyet group, tried to cast doubt on the story, saying that there were ‘conflicting’ reports about the Brazilian position.  As the smoke cleared this morning, however, both the AP and Reuters confirmed the FT account...

The endless nattering about ‘emerging powers’ is particularly misguided; it probably led to the brash overconfidence which is ending so badly for both Turkey and Brazil.  It also leads far too many people to underestimate the clout that the world’s true great powers have...

The fundamental analytical flaw is due in large part to simple ignorance of history and an over-dependence on theory.

Yes! Agreed. I am a political theorist suspicious of theories.

If we add to that the media’s restless hunger for new and exciting big stories and headlines, we get to the kind of overheated universe of commentary that surrounds us today.  The death of free markets, the rise of Japan, the triumph of laissez-faire: surely we have all heard enough of these proclamations to realize that they almost always describe short term trends rather than seismic shifts.  The first task for anybody who wants to understand the world today, much less to change it, is to cut through the useless chatter and infatuation with cheap and shiny trends that surround us on every side.

As someone who recently started a blog, I should probably feel sheepish.


 

__

Lebanese Ship Plots Course for HypocriSea

Here comes another batch of useful idiots and aspiring martyrs to try to break the naval blockade of Gaza. A few fun facts about this latest publicity stunt: 

*Their ship is named after an ancient Israelite lady, Miriam. Irony bonus points! 

*Probably no Palestinians are more marginalized than the 425,000 whom Lebanon has kept in refugee camps for 3+ generations, denying them citizenship, banning them from working in most professions, denying them access to public education, health care, and social services. All in the name of "preserving their identity"--the cynical abuse of the Palestinian cause in sharp relief. Please excuse me if this outpouring of solicitude for Gaza strikes me as hypocritical and more about sticking it to the Jews than about helping Palestinians.  (Don't believe me about that Lebanon would be so cruel to its "brothers?" A powerful case comes from even the most unlikely corners...)

*Hezbollah banned Lebanese singer Haifa Wehbe's request to join flotilla on grounds that
her 'nudity, degradation and immodest dress' would shame passengers. (Wehbe denies the story). I guess this means there won't be any racy floorshow, the staple of any good Mediterranean cruise.

*Hezbollah's Executive Council Chief, Hashem Safieddine (what is up with all these crypto-Zionists names?), is already claiming victory; says Zionists are quaking in their boots at the prospect of this "women's flotilla." "Zionists fear boat carrying women who want to deliver aid to Gaza, so how will they be able to face rockets in next war?" It's always nice to hear terrorists at least be honest about the level at which they are operating--that old medieval nexus of honor, fear, and shame.  

__

More in the series "Flotilla leaders in their own words"

"VIDEO: IHH leader tells Gaza flotilla activists to 'throw IDF soldiers into the sea,'" Haaretz. June 18, 2010

This is recently released footage from the Israeli Foreign Ministry.  

New video interviews with flotilla participants from IHH HQ in Istanbul

Interviews at IHH HQ in Istanbul and with flotilla participants by The Claire and Okan ORIENT EXPRESS
Raw video interview, with transcripts. Posted June 15, 2010.

Good post-flotilla coverage from German TV

In a report called, "Questionable Peace Mission," German broadcaster Südwestrundfunk interviews members of the left-wing German political party, Die Linke, who were on the Mavi Marmara. They ask how the flotillistas felt to be "fellow-travelers" with right-wing, violent Islamists. The short answer is, "not interested in thinking about it."

See also Op-Ed by Leon de Winter in today's Wall Street Journal explaining the strange alliance in Europe between purported peace activists on the far left and Islamist reactionaries on the far right.


-

The One About Iran...

Some much-need British sarcasm on the scene from "No Laughing Matter."
See also, "The One About Hamas."


-

Did the Saudis consent to open airspace for Israel to reach Iran?

"Saudi Arabia denies Times report on airspace clearance," Yediot Aharanot @ ynetnews.com updates. June 12, 2010.


"Report: Israel can cross Saudi airspace," United Press International (UPI). June 12, 2010.

Is this plausible, or would the Saudis never do this, as some have suggested? But wouldn't they deny it even if they did?

Last summer, the Obama administration was asking the Saudi government to let Israel fly through its airspace as a "normalization gesture." They flatly rejected the idea. Saudi Arabia should know that Iran and other revisionist powers in the region represent a greater threat to regional stability and their regime than Israel--the country that, day in and day out, is publicly touted as the most vicious bully in the neighborhood.  Are they willing and able to act accordingly?


Tzipi Livni at least maintains that the Saudis have offered their tacit support for a number of Israeli military operations, if only by refraining from criticizing them. None of Syria's neighbors seem to care when Israel attacked its nuclear facilities in 2007. Some Arab analysts  have explained their grave concerns about the prospects of a nuclear Iran. Many observers argue that the dominant cleavage in the Middle East is now between Iran and its revolutionary Islamist clients on the one hand, and the largely status quo Arab states (excepting Syria). See Barry Rubin for example.

But beating the drums against the Zionist menace is just so good for business. Can any Muslim ruler facing serious challenges at home stay in power without it? To publicly collaborate with the Zionist enemy, no matter how much it may be in a country's national interest, seems politically impossible.

I have heard many security analysts and strategists suggest that the Gulf countries and others--rightly fear Iran more than Israel, and quietly support Israel's efforts to deter Iran. A December 2009 public opinion poll found that "a clear majority in 18 Arab countries now thinks Iran poses a greater threat to security in the Middle East than Israel," as Michael Totten interprets a YouGov's (hosts of Doha Debates) numbers.

I've often wondered if wishful thinking was clouding these assessment in some way though. My sense is that, if the Saudi government were really about playing a productive role, they would make some effort to stop financing Jew-hating clerics, mosques, Jew-hating daycare, etc. all around the world.

See subsequent stories that seem to be related:

"Saudis upgrade fighter jets," Arieh O'Sullivan. Jerusalem Post. June 13, 2010

"Ahmadinejad: Israel, U.S. trying to sabotage Iran's relations with Saudi Arabia," Haaretz. June 13, 2010.


-